Iraq: Democracy or Chaos?
Opinion by R. David Brown
Like many in the anti-war camp, I am torn between feelings of great optimism and worry for the people of Iraq. On the eve of elections, the latest news could not be worse: multiple suicide bombers, attacks against polling stations, Iraqi civilians found executed, U.S. forces under heavy arms fire, another helicopter crash, and multi-media threats against those participating in the tomorrows vote - hardly a reassuring setting for an emerging democracy.
Obvious that the Bush administration is paying attention to recent polls, the bar has been lowered to a level where any turnout whatsoever will be considered a monumental victory. With Sunni Muslim extremists threatening to "wash the streets in blood", many people have more at stake than simply electing a transitional national assembly.
Regardless of turnout, the Shiite majority will certainly prevail. What this means for the future of Iraq is still unclear. Recent restraint by Shiite clerics, including the highly influential Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and their pledge not to directly participate in government is promising. The big question is how the Sunni minority, including the extremist element, will deal with the power shift.
The latest poll numbers indicate that up to 80% of Iraqis want U.S. forces to withdraw from their country. This might offer the administration an acceptable "out" after the true elections in December, which according to many insiders is exactly what they are looking for.
My fear is that whatever the course, the violence will continue to escalate and if that violence includes the targeting of newly elected assembly members, chaos will ensue. With the U.S. military's current inability to secure the major population centers, added stress could result in further disintegration of the society at large.
At best, there is an equal chance of moderate violence (of the current variety) or a collapse into chaos. It is my sincere hope that the planned level of inclusiveness in government, including the one-third allotted to women, will actually help tame the violence and foster a spirit of compromise that has been missing from Iraq for so many years.
Like many in the anti-war camp, I am torn between feelings of great optimism and worry for the people of Iraq. On the eve of elections, the latest news could not be worse: multiple suicide bombers, attacks against polling stations, Iraqi civilians found executed, U.S. forces under heavy arms fire, another helicopter crash, and multi-media threats against those participating in the tomorrows vote - hardly a reassuring setting for an emerging democracy.
Obvious that the Bush administration is paying attention to recent polls, the bar has been lowered to a level where any turnout whatsoever will be considered a monumental victory. With Sunni Muslim extremists threatening to "wash the streets in blood", many people have more at stake than simply electing a transitional national assembly.
Regardless of turnout, the Shiite majority will certainly prevail. What this means for the future of Iraq is still unclear. Recent restraint by Shiite clerics, including the highly influential Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and their pledge not to directly participate in government is promising. The big question is how the Sunni minority, including the extremist element, will deal with the power shift.
The latest poll numbers indicate that up to 80% of Iraqis want U.S. forces to withdraw from their country. This might offer the administration an acceptable "out" after the true elections in December, which according to many insiders is exactly what they are looking for.
My fear is that whatever the course, the violence will continue to escalate and if that violence includes the targeting of newly elected assembly members, chaos will ensue. With the U.S. military's current inability to secure the major population centers, added stress could result in further disintegration of the society at large.
At best, there is an equal chance of moderate violence (of the current variety) or a collapse into chaos. It is my sincere hope that the planned level of inclusiveness in government, including the one-third allotted to women, will actually help tame the violence and foster a spirit of compromise that has been missing from Iraq for so many years.
posted by Political Zen at 8:09 PM
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